The USA has around 3.100.000 jobs in the area of truck driving (which is about 2% of all employed) – delivering cargoes. And the total employment in the commercial car driving sector in the US is at 29% bigger – about 4 million jobs. Research was done by Goldman Sachs prognoses that about 9.7 percent of people from this amount (0.3 million people per 12 months, and 25 thousand roughly every month if to split this number) will have to lose their jobs during the year after the technology will advance and come to its peak. That point is predicted somewhere between 2025 and 2030. It will not only be a peak of the advancement of the technology itself but also the number of sales of the vehicles equipped with this tech.
In addition to truck drivers, other drivers will also be affected, as they make 0.9 million workers. Such services as automated hail-rides will be the most significant reason for that in conjunction with some part of other rides.
But the emergence of driverless cars and ones having semi-automatics, including trucks, must be sharp and fast in order to achieve the above-mentioned numbers. Otherwise, they will be less. The sales share in the total amount of vehicles is estimated by Goldman Sachs as 20% and the job losses’ numbers will be lower if these indicators won’t be reached. The same halting option is applied to delays not only in sales but also in the adoption of regulations. Many people think that the legislation base will lag far behind the technological progress and not only in the US but in the other countries too. Yet another thing is that the replacement of labor won’t be the direct-affected thing – it’ll take a time to make such shifts by employers, from the use of human-based labor to automated one. But the process is still inevitable though and it will reach its top later or sooner.
Analytics also tell that there is no such thing as pure losses because people from one industry come to another one. For instance, when publishing, telecom, and manufacturing areas were affected by losses in the quantity of employed the others ones became winners in that very same time period. These were food services, computer design, education, and healthcare. There is not a direct interrelation, but some amount of people who would lose their jobs will shift to the associated or brand new areas.
Many companies currently are engaged in the chase for making the driverless and semi-autonomous vehicles. Amongst them are Tesla, BMW, and others.